I’ve really enjoyed following FiveThirtyEight.com this election season. It’s a daily report on the polls that is easy enough for anyone to follow, yet complex enough to make all other polling reports look like high school homework. For instance, the AP recently did a story on the “remote” chance that Obama could win the popular vote but lose the electoral college. FiveThirtyEight does the math nightly - that chance is .8%.

The site is a daily meta-analysis that combines the results of many national polls. Lots of people do this. Their special sauce is a complex formula that, among other things, gives more weight to certain polls based on historical accuracy, recency, and sample size. Then, using those numbers, they simulate the election 10,000 times nightly. So if their franken-poll gives Obama has a 67% chance of winning Florida, he’ll win it’s 27 electoral votes in 2/3 of their 10,000 simulated elections. Then, using those results, they give each cantidate’s probability of winning the election (they currently give Obama a 98.1% chance - assuming the polls are right).

At least that’s how I understand it. The point is the author is really smart, and he does all his math in the open so I trust him. More info in the FAQ.

As a bonus, every now and then, FiveThirtyEight mathematically demonstrates why Drudge Report is an awful place to go for news.

I cannot imagine listening to anyone else talking about polls on election day. There may be similar websites I’m not familiar with, but there’s definitely nobody this smart on TV. This is the guy who knows what to look for.

New York Magazine did an interesting article about the site’s creator, who has a history in baseball stats.